In unserer Liquid Feedback Instanz wurde Thema 1491 abgestimmt. Diese Seite soll das Abstimmungsergebnis näher erklären.

Hinweis

  • Diese Seite hat zwei Ziele:
    1. Zum einen soll sie eine unabhängige und nachprüfbare Instanz sein, bei der die Ergebnisse von Liquid Feedback selbstständig aus den Abstimmungsdaten berechnet werden können, damit kein Vertrauen in diesen Aspekt von Liquid Feedback notwendig ist.
    2. Zum anderen soll das Abstimmungsergebnis möglichst verständlich aufbereitet werden und am konkreten Beispiel die benutzten Verfahren erklären.
  • Diese Aufbereitung ist noch in einem frühen Stadium. Weder die Erklärungen noch die Berechnungen sind vollständig zufriedenstellend. Für konstruktive Hinweise per Mail an niels.lohmann@piraten-mv.de freue ich mich sehr.
  • Die Reiter „Rohdaten“ und „Quelle“ sollen in Zukunft beschreiben, wie man an die hier aufbereiteten Daten und Ergebnisse kommen kann. Eine genauere Beschreibung sowie eine Veröffentlichung des Scriptes, das diese Seiten erstellt, steht noch aus.
  • Die hier gezeigte Umsetzung der Schulze-Methode entspricht nicht den in den jeweiligen Wikipedia-Artikeln beschrieben Verfahren, wo bei der Bestimmung der stärksten Wege ein anderer Vergleichsoperator genutzt wird. Eine genauere Beschreibung der Unterschiede steht aus. Mehr Details lassen sich auf der LQFB-Website bzw. gleich im Paper von Markus Schulze finden.
  • Die hier gezeigte Umsetzung der Schulze-Methode entspricht nicht vollständig dem in Liquid Feedback verwendeten Verfahren. Es ist also durchaus möglich (und bekannt), dass die hier beschriebenen Abstimmungsergebnisse nicht notwendigerweise mit denen in Liquid Feedback übereinstimmen. Ich stehe mit den Entwicklern in Kontakt, um dies zu ändern. Insbesondere verwendet Liquid Feedback ein Verfahren um stets eine vollständige Ordnung (statt nur einer Halbordnung) zu erreichen. Da die zuerst verwendete Umsetzung einen Fehler hatte und die nun verwendete Umsetzung undemokratisch ist (d.h. die Initiative mit der geringsten Id bevorzugt), habe ich mich dazu entschlossen, abzuwarten wie dieses Problem gelöst wird.
  • Definitiv in Planung ist ein Vergleich des Endergebnisses mit den abgegebenen Stimmen. Vielleicht lässt sich quantifizieren, inwieweit das Abstimmungsergebnis den Mehrheitswillen abbildet. Ebenso wäre es wünschenswert, weitere Eigenschaften des Wahlverfahrens (z.B. Clone-Proofness) zu beschreiben.

Initiativen

Es standen 1 Initiativen im Bereich Umwelt, Verkehr, Energie zur Abstimmung:

Im folgenden werden die Initiativen nur noch mit ihrer Nummer beschrieben.

SELECT area_id, fully_frozen, closed FROM issue WHERE (id = '1491') ORDER BY id
SELECT name FROM area WHERE (id = 6) ORDER BY id
SELECT id, name FROM initiative WHERE (issue_id = '1491' AND admitted = true) ORDER BY id
issue
Groups of initiatives
area
Subject areas
initiative
Group of members publishing drafts for resolutions to be passed; Frontends must ensure that initiatives of half_frozen issues are not revoked, and that initiatives of fully_frozen or closed issues are neither revoked nor created.
(6, datetime.datetime(2012, 5, 11, 19, 21, 8, 151843, tzinfo=psycopg2.tz.FixedOffsetTimezone(offset=120, name=None)), datetime.datetime(2012, 5, 26, 19, 48, 47, 995247, tzinfo=psycopg2.tz.FixedOffsetTimezone(offset=120, name=None)))
('Umwelt, Verkehr, Energie',)
(2728, 'Transparenz f\xc3\xbcr Daten von Emissionen')

Abstimmung

Die Abstimmung fand von Freitag, den 11. Mai 2012 bis Samstag, den 26. Mai 2012 statt.

Es haben 786 Mitglieder mit insgesamt 1004 Stimmen abgestimmt.

Falls es mehr Stimmen als Mitglieder gibt, entstammen die zusätzlichen Stimmen Delegationen. Falls ein Mitglied beispielsweise mit zwei eingehenden Delegationen abgestimmt hat, wird dies im folgenden wie zwei zusätzliche gleiche abgegebene Stimmen behandelt.

SELECT member_id, weight FROM direct_voter WHERE (issue_id = '1491')
direct_voter
Members having directly voted for/against initiatives of an issue; Frontends must ensure that no voters are added or removed to/from this table when the issue has been closed.
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Stimmzettel

Liquid Feedback benutzt bei der Abstimmung eine sogenannte Präferenzwahl. Dabei können neben der Zustimmung und Ablehnung der zur Abstimmung stehenden Initiativen Präferenzen zum Ausdruck gebracht werden (Favorit, erster Ersatzwunsch, …).

Die Abstimmungen im Liquid Feedback sind öffentlich. Im folgenden stellt jede Zeile einen abgegebenen Stimmzettel dar. Die farbig hinterlegten Zahlen geben die gewünschte Reihenfolge der Initiativen wieder: Initiativen mit einer höheren Zahl werden gegenüber Initiativen mit einer geringeren Zahl bevorzugt. Initiativen mit gleicher Zahl sind nicht geordnet. Grüne Zahlen entsprechen Zustimmung, rote Zahlen entsprechen Ablehnung.

  • 1 2728×668
  • -1 2728×243
  • 0 2728×81

Wie beschrieben wurden Stimmen entsprechend des Stimmgewichtes durch eingehende Delegationen wiederholt. Um Platz zu sparen, wird jeder unterschiedliche Wahlzettel nur einmal angezeigt - der Wert am Ende der Zeile gibt an, wie viele gleich ausgefüllt Wahlzettel es gibt.

Der Wert der bunt hinterlegten Zahlen wird im folgenden nur für die Reihenfolge verwendet – die Höhe spielt dabei nur innerhalb eines Stimmzettel eine Rolle. Weiterhin ist es nicht möglich, „Lücken“ in den Werten zu haben und beispielsweise den Wert 3 ohne den Wert 2 zu vergeben.

SELECT initiative_id, grade FROM vote WHERE (issue_id = 1491 AND member_id = ___) ORDER BY grade DESC
vote
Manual and delegated votes without abstentions; Frontends must ensure that no votes are added modified or removed when the issue has been closed.

Hinweis: Das Feld member_id wurde ausgeblendet.

(2728, 1)
(2728, -1)
(2728, 1)
(2728, 1)
(2728, 0)
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(2728, 1)

Präferenzen

Durch die Abstimmungen wurden insgesamt 0 explizite und 911 implizite Präferenzen abgegeben. Eine explizite Präferenz ist dabei eine vom Mitglied ausgedrückte Reihenfolge zwischen zwei Initiativen. Weiterhin wird aus jedem Stimmzettel errechnet, welche Initiativen gegenüber dem Status Quo bevorzugt werden (d.h. mit einer positiven Zahl bewertet werden) bzw. welche abgelehnt werden (d.h. mit einer negativen Zahl bewertet werden). Diese impliziten Präferenzen werden später dazu verwendet zu entscheiden, ob eine Initiative angenommen oder abgelehnt wird.

Präferenztabelle

Die folgende Tabelle fasst alle Präferenzen zusammen. Jeder Eintrag gibt an, wie viele Mitglieder die Initiative der jeweiligen Zeile der Initiative der jeweiligen Spalte bevorzugen. Grün hinterlegte Zellen beschreiben eine mehrheitliche Zustimmung der Initiative in der jeweiligen Zeile verglichen mit der Initiative in der jeweiligen Spalte. Rot hinterlegte Zellen beschreiben eine mehrheitliche Ablehnungen der Initiative in der jeweiligen Zeile verglichen mit der Initiative in der jeweiligen Spalte.

>V 2728 SQ
2728 668
SQ 243

Der Eintrag „SQ“ steht für den Status Quo, der wie eine virtuelle Initiative behandelt wird, die nur mit den impliziten Präferenzen bewertet wird. Wenn ein Mitglied einer Initiative zustimmt, präferiert es diese Initiative gegenüber dem Status Quo. Wenn ein Mitglied hingegen eine Initiative ablehnt, präferiert er den Status Quo gegenüber dieser Initiative. Demnach entspricht die letzte Zeile der Tabelle der Anzahl der Ablehnungen für jede Initiative und die letzte Spalte der Tabelle die Anzahl der Zustimmungen für jede Initiative. Details sind auf dieser Seite beschrieben.

Grafische Darstellung

Die Grafik interpretiert die Tabelle wie folgt: Jeder Kreis entspricht einer Initiative und jeder Pfeil gibt an, wie viele Mitglieder die eine oder die andere Initiative im direkten Vergleich bevorzugen. Die Richtung des Pfeiles stellt eine Mehrheit im direkten Vergleich dar. Bei Gleichstand wird eine Linie ohne Pfeilspitze gezogen. Die Linien sind mit den Präferenzen beschriftet.

Hinweis: Diese Grafik ist nur eine andere Darstellung der Präferenztabelle und gibt lediglich direkte Vergliche, jedoch keine allgemeine Ordnung zwischen Initiativen wieder.

Explizite Präferenzen

Bei einer einzigen Initiative gibt es keine expliziten Präferenzen.

Implizite Präferenzen gegenüber Status Quo

  1. SQ >V 2728
  2. 2728 >V SQ
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  11. 2728 >V SQ
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  17. 2728 >V SQ
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  20. SQ >V 2728
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  24. 2728 >V SQ
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  27. 2728 >V SQ
  28. 2728 >V SQ
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  673. SQ >V 2728
  674. SQ >V 2728
  675. SQ >V 2728
  676. SQ >V 2728
  677. SQ >V 2728
  678. 2728 >V SQ
  679. 2728 >V SQ
  680. SQ >V 2728
  681. SQ >V 2728
  682. SQ >V 2728
  683. SQ >V 2728
  684. SQ >V 2728
  685. SQ >V 2728
  686. SQ >V 2728
  687. SQ >V 2728
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  690. 2728 >V SQ
  691. SQ >V 2728
  692. SQ >V 2728
  693. SQ >V 2728
  694. SQ >V 2728
  695. 2728 >V SQ
  696. SQ >V 2728
  697. SQ >V 2728
  698. 2728 >V SQ
  699. SQ >V 2728
  700. SQ >V 2728
  701. SQ >V 2728
  702. SQ >V 2728
  703. SQ >V 2728
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  705. SQ >V 2728
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  708. 2728 >V SQ
  709. SQ >V 2728
  710. SQ >V 2728
  711. SQ >V 2728
  712. SQ >V 2728
  713. SQ >V 2728
  714. SQ >V 2728
  715. SQ >V 2728
  716. SQ >V 2728
  717. SQ >V 2728
  718. 2728 >V SQ
  719. 2728 >V SQ
  720. SQ >V 2728
  721. 2728 >V SQ
  722. SQ >V 2728
  723. SQ >V 2728
  724. SQ >V 2728
  725. 2728 >V SQ
  726. 2728 >V SQ
  727. 2728 >V SQ
  728. SQ >V 2728
  729. SQ >V 2728
  730. SQ >V 2728
  731. SQ >V 2728
  732. SQ >V 2728
  733. SQ >V 2728
  734. SQ >V 2728
  735. SQ >V 2728
  736. SQ >V 2728
  737. SQ >V 2728
  738. SQ >V 2728
  739. SQ >V 2728
  740. SQ >V 2728
  741. SQ >V 2728
  742. SQ >V 2728
  743. SQ >V 2728
  744. SQ >V 2728
  745. SQ >V 2728
  746. SQ >V 2728
  747. SQ >V 2728
  748. SQ >V 2728
  749. SQ >V 2728
  750. 2728 >V SQ
  751. SQ >V 2728
  752. SQ >V 2728
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  756. SQ >V 2728
  757. SQ >V 2728
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  764. SQ >V 2728
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  769. SQ >V 2728
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  786. 2728 >V SQ
  787. 2728 >V SQ
  788. 2728 >V SQ
  789. 2728 >V SQ
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  792. 2728 >V SQ
  793. 2728 >V SQ
  794. 2728 >V SQ
  795. 2728 >V SQ
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  811. SQ >V 2728
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  815. SQ >V 2728
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  819. SQ >V 2728
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  826. 2728 >V SQ
  827. SQ >V 2728
  828. SQ >V 2728
  829. SQ >V 2728
  830. SQ >V 2728
  831. SQ >V 2728
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  834. SQ >V 2728
  835. SQ >V 2728
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  837. SQ >V 2728
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  839. SQ >V 2728
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  895. SQ >V 2728
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  904. SQ >V 2728
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  910. SQ >V 2728
  911. SQ >V 2728

Schulze-Methode

Um aus der Präferenztabelle eine allgemeine Ordnung der Initiativen zu finden wird die Schulze-Methode verwendet. Diese vergleicht nun die Initiativen nicht nur direkt, sondern auch indirekt. Dabei wird davon ausgegangen, dass Präferenzen transitiv sind, d.h. dass ein Mitglied, dass Initiative A gegenüber B präferiert und B gegenüber C, dann auch A gegenüber C präferieren würde.

Die Schulze-Methode ermittelt nun für jeweils zwei Initiativen A und B die höchste Präferenz, indem nicht nur die direkte Verbindung zwischen A und B, sondern auch indirekte Verbindungen zwischen A und C sowie C und B verglichen werden. Das Ergebnis sind dann die sogenannten stärksten Wege.

Tabelle der stärksten Wege

Die folgende Tabelle fasst alle stärksten Wege zusammen. Jeder Eintrag gibt die Stärke des besten Weges zwischen der Initiative der jeweiligen Zeile der Initiative der jeweiligen Spalte an.

PD 2728 SQ
2728 668
SQ 243

Werte, die sich gegenüber der Präferenztabelle unterscheiden, sind fett hervorgehoben. Es ist durchaus möglich, dass gerade bei Abstimmungen zwischen wenigen Initiativen diese Tabelle mit der ursprünglichen Präferenztabelle übereinstimmt. In diesem Fall konnte kein besserer Weg zwischen den jeweiligen Initiativen gefunden werden.

Grafische Darstellung

Schulze-Rang

Mithilfe der stärksten Wege kann nun jede Initiative mit jeder anderen verglichen werden. Da es sein kann, dass mehrere Initiativen gleich gut sind, ist das Ergebnis der Schulze-Methode in der Regel Halbordnung. Dies bedeutet, dass es nicht nur mehrere Siegerinitiativen geben kann, sondern auch, dass nur durch zusätzliche Regeln eine feste Reihenfolge zwischen ansonsten gleich guten Initiativen gefunden werden muss.

Grafische Darstellung

Das Ergebnis der Schulze-Methode kann grafisch so aufgefasst werden, dass ein Pfeil zwischen Initiative A und Initiative B bedeutet, dass im Endergebnis Initiative A besser als Initiative B ist:

Die Grafik wurde zur erhöhten Lesbarkeit transitiv reduziert, d.h. das Pfeile, die sich aus anderen Pfeilen ableiten lassen weggelassen wurden. Wenn beispielsweise Initiative A besser ist als Initiative B und C ist und Initiative B wiederum besser ist als Initiative C ist, dann kann der Pfeil zwischen A und C weggelassen werden.

Eine besondere Rolle spielt bei dieser Halbordnung der Status Quo (blau eingezeichnet). Jede Initiative, die nicht besser als der Status Quo ist (in der Grafik rot eingezeichnet), wird im späteren Verfahren der Siegerermittlung automatisch abgelehnt.

Vollständige Rangfolge

Die oben dargestellt Halbordnung kann mithilfe einer topologischen Sortierung in eine vollständige Ordnung überführt werden. Diese Sortierung hat die Eigenschaft, dass alle in der Halbordnung festgelegten Reihenfolgen eigehalten werden, jedoch bisher ungeordnete Initiativen in eine (potenziell willkürliche) Ordnung gebracht werden.

Im konkreten Fall ist die Ordnung eindeutig.

  1. Initiative 2728: Transparenz für Daten von Emissionen
  2. Status Quo

O = { [2728,SQ] }

Annehmen und Ablehnen von Initiativen

Neben den reinen Präferenzen spielen auch weitere Regeln eine Rolle bei der Ermittlung der Abstimmungssieger.

Dieses Thema wurde mit dem Regelwerk Programmantrag abgestimmt. In diesem Regelwerk werden Initiativen nur angenommen, wenn

  1. ihr Schulze-Rang besser als der des Status Quo ist und
  2. es mehr als doppelt so viele Zustimmungen wie Ablehnungen gibt.

Falls eines dieser Kriterien verletzt wird, wird die jeweilige Initiativen bei der Ermittlung des Siegers nicht weiter berücksichtigt.

Ergebnisse

  • Initiative 2728: Transparenz für Daten von Emissionen angenommen
    • 668 Zustimmungen
    • 243 Ablehnungen
    • 81 Enthaltungen
    • Verhältnis von Zustimmungen und Ablehnungen ist ausreichend
    • Schulze-Rang ist besser als Status Quo
SELECT policy_id FROM issue WHERE (id = '1491') ORDER BY id
SELECT name, direct_majority_num, direct_majority_den, direct_majority_strict FROM policy WHERE (id = 2) ORDER BY id
vote
Manual and delegated votes without abstentions; Frontends must ensure that no votes are added modified or removed when the issue has been closed.
policy
Policies for a particular proceeding type (timelimits, quorum)
(2,)
('Programmantrag', 2, 3, True)

Gewinner

Entsprechend der Schulze-Methode gibt es folgende Gewinner:

Gewinner Initiative 2728: Transparenz für Daten von Emissionen

Diese Initiative hat den besten Schulze-Rang unter den angenommenen Initiativen.